2090% Increase Since December 2007!
Chart above shows last 30 Months' equity on Mon., Sept. 7, 2009
Monday, December 31, 2012
2012 Be Gone! Challenge account at $34,733--
In all my 30+ years of trading, 2012 is the one I am most glad to have
behind me. I have yet to hear of one of my trading contemporaries who
feels differently. If you feel differently, I'd appreciate your email.
I've gotten a variety of emails from earlier followers of this blog who wondered when I would post a follow-up. I thank you for your contacts.
There is a good reason why I haven't been busy updating this site. I will explain.
(more to come---)
I've gotten a variety of emails from earlier followers of this blog who wondered when I would post a follow-up. I thank you for your contacts.
There is a good reason why I haven't been busy updating this site. I will explain.
(more to come---)
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
2011 - A Nasty Trading Year for Forex Traders - Infiniteyield Forex Challenge Account:$34,183
I've had a very tumultuous year in trading, and so has the Challenge account. Not bad, but tumultuous.
tu·mul·tu·ous
adjective
1. full of tumult or riotousness; marked by disturbance and uproar: a tumultuous celebration.
2. raising a great clatter and commotion; disorderly or noisy: a tumultuous crowd of students.
3. highly agitated, as the mind or emotions; distraught; turbulent.
Yes, it fits.
When I started out the year, silver was at the $29 - $30 level, same as it is now. The Eur/Usd was at the 1.3250 level and it got up to 1.4700 and now is back down at the 1.3000 level --below the start of the year.
Of course silver had its big move up early in the year to the $49/oz. area.
How did the Challenge account do? It depends on an individual's point of view who's interested, but from mine-- it did quite well.
We started out the year with $26,522.00 in the Challenge account. We were holding 1000 ounces of on the Oanda platform, which made it possible to hold it with less than $1000 margin. When silver got over $49/oz. at the end of April, the Challenge account had a total value of over $51,000. I backed way off my trading size on FirstStrike and OneNightStand positions because the volatility of silver and the volatility of the currencies was parallel and there was no need to increase my risk.
I sold 500 ounces at 48.90. WOW! I just couldn't help it. The volatility was insane, the market was ticking up and down 20 to 50 cents every few minutes. I decided if silver decided to go above $50 I would put the 500 ounces back on. It didn't happen.
To not describe in detail the ensuing 10 weeks of painful volatility is a bonus for you and me (I'm not interested in reliving it or reminding you of the nightmare you dealt with too), as I was trading much larger silver positions on Comex and the cash markets. Equity swings of $100k a day, sometimes an hour - are not fun even if you have done it many times before. My personal year has worked out fine, while most money managers are posting red ink. This year reminds me of the famous Kenny Rogers song with the lyrics:
You've got to know when to hold 'em.
Know when to fold 'em.
Know when to walk away,
know when to run....
I ran from all my silver by the time silver dropped through $45/ounce.
Back to the Challenge account. A couple weeks after the 500 ounce sale, I sold the other 500 remaining ounces at Oanda in the mid 30's, took a disbursement and bought 1000 ounces of silver in bar form. Why?
Thanks to the idiots who are behind the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
This is the notice that Oanda account holders received:
Effective the end of Friday, July 15, 2011, Retail Foreign Exchange Dealers (RFEDs) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will be prohibited from offering leveraged retail trading in commodities, including precious metals such as gold and silver. This change in the U.S. law is being enforced by the CFTC as an outcome of The Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
Yes, OANDA offers 1:1 non-leveraged Gold and Silver trading. That defeats the whole purpose of a speculator like you or me using Oanda or other similar firms for profiting via gold and/or silver -- we want the leverage.
Anyway, so now the Challenge account has 1000 REAL ounces of silver, valued momentarily at $29,600, and $4,583 left over to position in the forex markets if something great happens. Maybe after the first of the year. So, a total current value of $34,183.
Not bad performance in 4 years from a meager $500. Only have to double the account a little over two more times within the next 6 years.
I'll have to get the chart up above updated. The spike over $50K and back down is the kind of thing that makes people (and wives) think you are crazy for trading.
The question I always get after a drawdown, if I am stupid enough to even mention it to my non-trading friends, is: "Why didn't you sell when it topped...?" As if you always miraculously know that the top they see after fact is obvious when it is happening.
But the public thought process is why we have so much opportunity when we trade. Others cannot or will not do what has to be done at the times the right trade has to be executed.
Looking forward to more updates.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
tu·mul·tu·ous
adjective
1. full of tumult or riotousness; marked by disturbance and uproar: a tumultuous celebration.
2. raising a great clatter and commotion; disorderly or noisy: a tumultuous crowd of students.
3. highly agitated, as the mind or emotions; distraught; turbulent.
Yes, it fits.
When I started out the year, silver was at the $29 - $30 level, same as it is now. The Eur/Usd was at the 1.3250 level and it got up to 1.4700 and now is back down at the 1.3000 level --below the start of the year.
Of course silver had its big move up early in the year to the $49/oz. area.
How did the Challenge account do? It depends on an individual's point of view who's interested, but from mine-- it did quite well.
We started out the year with $26,522.00 in the Challenge account. We were holding 1000 ounces of on the Oanda platform, which made it possible to hold it with less than $1000 margin. When silver got over $49/oz. at the end of April, the Challenge account had a total value of over $51,000. I backed way off my trading size on FirstStrike and OneNightStand positions because the volatility of silver and the volatility of the currencies was parallel and there was no need to increase my risk.
I sold 500 ounces at 48.90. WOW! I just couldn't help it. The volatility was insane, the market was ticking up and down 20 to 50 cents every few minutes. I decided if silver decided to go above $50 I would put the 500 ounces back on. It didn't happen.
To not describe in detail the ensuing 10 weeks of painful volatility is a bonus for you and me (I'm not interested in reliving it or reminding you of the nightmare you dealt with too), as I was trading much larger silver positions on Comex and the cash markets. Equity swings of $100k a day, sometimes an hour - are not fun even if you have done it many times before. My personal year has worked out fine, while most money managers are posting red ink. This year reminds me of the famous Kenny Rogers song with the lyrics:
You've got to know when to hold 'em.
Know when to fold 'em.
Know when to walk away,
know when to run....
I ran from all my silver by the time silver dropped through $45/ounce.
Back to the Challenge account. A couple weeks after the 500 ounce sale, I sold the other 500 remaining ounces at Oanda in the mid 30's, took a disbursement and bought 1000 ounces of silver in bar form. Why?
Thanks to the idiots who are behind the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
This is the notice that Oanda account holders received:
Effective the end of Friday, July 15, 2011, Retail Foreign Exchange Dealers (RFEDs) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will be prohibited from offering leveraged retail trading in commodities, including precious metals such as gold and silver. This change in the U.S. law is being enforced by the CFTC as an outcome of The Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
Yes, OANDA offers 1:1 non-leveraged Gold and Silver trading. That defeats the whole purpose of a speculator like you or me using Oanda or other similar firms for profiting via gold and/or silver -- we want the leverage.
Anyway, so now the Challenge account has 1000 REAL ounces of silver, valued momentarily at $29,600, and $4,583 left over to position in the forex markets if something great happens. Maybe after the first of the year. So, a total current value of $34,183.
Not bad performance in 4 years from a meager $500. Only have to double the account a little over two more times within the next 6 years.
I'll have to get the chart up above updated. The spike over $50K and back down is the kind of thing that makes people (and wives) think you are crazy for trading.
The question I always get after a drawdown, if I am stupid enough to even mention it to my non-trading friends, is: "Why didn't you sell when it topped...?" As if you always miraculously know that the top they see after fact is obvious when it is happening.
But the public thought process is why we have so much opportunity when we trade. Others cannot or will not do what has to be done at the times the right trade has to be executed.
Looking forward to more updates.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
Friday, December 31, 2010
The Infiniteyield Challenge account is now at $26,522.00
It has been an incredible year for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge.
I've had a number of you call me recently and ask how well the account has been doing because you've been doing well yourselves -- thanks for the calls and interest. I figured I better post the year's results before the coming of the new year in a few hours.
In the 159 weeks since I started the $500 Challenge account with Oanda it has grown through a combination of OneNightStand trades, the weekly FirstStrike trades, and a relatively small position in silver.
Currently it has doubled 5 1/2 times. From here, I only have to double the account less than 3 times to achieve my goal of $150,000 or more.
With 7 years to go.
(Completion of the post is in progress....)
I've had a number of you call me recently and ask how well the account has been doing because you've been doing well yourselves -- thanks for the calls and interest. I figured I better post the year's results before the coming of the new year in a few hours.
In the 159 weeks since I started the $500 Challenge account with Oanda it has grown through a combination of OneNightStand trades, the weekly FirstStrike trades, and a relatively small position in silver.
Currently it has doubled 5 1/2 times. From here, I only have to double the account less than 3 times to achieve my goal of $150,000 or more.
With 7 years to go.
(Completion of the post is in progress....)
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Now--- 2090 % increase since December 2007
A hearty hello to the most determined traders I've ever known.
I have no doubt that some of you thought I would never post again.
I've been busy trading, traveling to Chicago and other cities for consulting with hedge funds..., but mostly trading.
Because of the tremendous move in silver over the last month – we have again hit new equity highs. The Challenge account shows a 2090 % increase since December 2007 when I started the blog and the account with just $500. This is equivalent to a 761% annual average return.
Pretty incredible, but I still expect some hard, negative equity swings in the future. When silver dropped to $14.66 last February the account dropped to around $4300 – and I began to believe that I might have to dump some if it dropped another dollar. It didn't.
The Challenge Account 1000 oz. silver position has been a lifesaver over the last year. It definitely helps that silver has climbed over $21.00/oz. Now it seems that all you hear on the financial news networks is that gold and silver are being recommended by this bank or that analyst – if I didn't know that silver had a much larger distance to go long term..., I would be inclined to exit some just because of contrary opinion reasons.
And there has been a definite change in the attitude of the voting public about the”change” that has come to Washington. Not many are happy about – no jobs – lower prices for their homes – tough to get credit.
Don't expect too much REAL “change” in the near future.
Things might “appear” better soon – if just because people get tired of being afraid and start doing things, starting up more business, and because the banks will finally figure out a way to liberate (lend out) the Trillions of dollars put into their coffers.
Banks hate to have capital that is only making ½ % a year - lending it back to the same guys who gave it to them (who thought that up?).
Eventually people will begin to forget the recent financial unpleasantness just like they forgot the “Savings & Loan Crisis” of the late '80's. Some of the younger (and not so young) readers will be saying, “What was that?”
It can't be soon enough for me.
The forex markets have been very choppy.
I don't need to hammer that point too hard for those of you trading FirstStrike and One Night Stand along with me. ONS has done a little better overall than FS but that is what happens ever so many years. Trading systems go into drawdowns and we have to wait patiently until things get exciting again.
Maybe that will be soon.
This last year was very good to me, trading-wise.
I've had the move in silver, of course, but had great moves (some of them historic!) in wheat, corn, cotton, coffee and sugar. These markets made me 4 times what silver and the currencies did.
I've made no secret of the fact that I believe forex trading is a great place to start trading and learn to trade properly with a small amount of capital. After you get competent, it is ridiculous to miss the huge moves that are possible in the other derivative arena, the futures markets.
This week we have a few decent FirstStrike trades working.
Week of Sept. 20, 2010---FirststrikePlus trade executions:
eur/usd: Long @ 1.3183, currently profitable
gbp/jpy: Short @ 132.06, currently w/small loss
gbp/usd: Short @1.5557, stopped at 1.5709
usd/chf: Short @1.0042, currently profitable
usd/jpy: Short @ 84.77, currently profitable
(Current XAG price: $21.16– 1000 unit position average: $12.59)
TOTAL Equity: $ 10,966.54
-----
Congratulations to all of you who have stuck to their trading and weathered the drawdowns that inevitably show up when you trade a long-term plan.
I know that feeling too.
Looking forward to more updates.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
I have no doubt that some of you thought I would never post again.
I've been busy trading, traveling to Chicago and other cities for consulting with hedge funds..., but mostly trading.
Because of the tremendous move in silver over the last month – we have again hit new equity highs. The Challenge account shows a 2090 % increase since December 2007 when I started the blog and the account with just $500. This is equivalent to a 761% annual average return.
Pretty incredible, but I still expect some hard, negative equity swings in the future. When silver dropped to $14.66 last February the account dropped to around $4300 – and I began to believe that I might have to dump some if it dropped another dollar. It didn't.
The Challenge Account 1000 oz. silver position has been a lifesaver over the last year. It definitely helps that silver has climbed over $21.00/oz. Now it seems that all you hear on the financial news networks is that gold and silver are being recommended by this bank or that analyst – if I didn't know that silver had a much larger distance to go long term..., I would be inclined to exit some just because of contrary opinion reasons.
And there has been a definite change in the attitude of the voting public about the”change” that has come to Washington. Not many are happy about – no jobs – lower prices for their homes – tough to get credit.
Don't expect too much REAL “change” in the near future.
Things might “appear” better soon – if just because people get tired of being afraid and start doing things, starting up more business, and because the banks will finally figure out a way to liberate (lend out) the Trillions of dollars put into their coffers.
Banks hate to have capital that is only making ½ % a year - lending it back to the same guys who gave it to them (who thought that up?).
Eventually people will begin to forget the recent financial unpleasantness just like they forgot the “Savings & Loan Crisis” of the late '80's. Some of the younger (and not so young) readers will be saying, “What was that?”
It can't be soon enough for me.
The forex markets have been very choppy.
I don't need to hammer that point too hard for those of you trading FirstStrike and One Night Stand along with me. ONS has done a little better overall than FS but that is what happens ever so many years. Trading systems go into drawdowns and we have to wait patiently until things get exciting again.
Maybe that will be soon.
This last year was very good to me, trading-wise.
I've had the move in silver, of course, but had great moves (some of them historic!) in wheat, corn, cotton, coffee and sugar. These markets made me 4 times what silver and the currencies did.
I've made no secret of the fact that I believe forex trading is a great place to start trading and learn to trade properly with a small amount of capital. After you get competent, it is ridiculous to miss the huge moves that are possible in the other derivative arena, the futures markets.
This week we have a few decent FirstStrike trades working.
Week of Sept. 20, 2010---FirststrikePlus trade executions:
eur/usd: Long @ 1.3183, currently profitable
gbp/jpy: Short @ 132.06, currently w/small loss
gbp/usd: Short @1.5557, stopped at 1.5709
usd/chf: Short @1.0042, currently profitable
usd/jpy: Short @ 84.77, currently profitable
(Current XAG price: $21.16– 1000 unit position average: $12.59)
TOTAL Equity: $ 10,966.54
-----
Congratulations to all of you who have stuck to their trading and weathered the drawdowns that inevitably show up when you trade a long-term plan.
I know that feeling too.
Looking forward to more updates.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Monday, September 7, 2009
1185 % increase since December 2007
I'm glad to have a chance to make an update.
Sorry about my long absences. But, trading is what I do for a living and when duty calls..., it usually takes the form of an early morning Eur/Usd or coffee trade.
This year has been one of my busiest and most personally profitable. Last year was terrific for me in my personal trading - especially the last half - so this year is a unsuspected bonus. All markets have ebbs and flows, and right now the majority of the world's money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for confirmation of something to make a commitment.
When volatility starts to increase due to that commitment, I have to get involved. You already know the drill.
Since the last update in April --- in the Challenge account I have made 108 FirstStrikePlus and ONS trades and added 600 ounces to the long XAG position. The previous position of 400 ounces had an average of $10.95.
The 3 silver additions were: 200 ounces @13.04, 200 ounces @ 13.70 and 200 ounces @14.31.
This makes an average position of 1000 ounces of XAG @12.59.
Due to this enhanced position and the beneficial price action of the last month in silver – we have hit new equity highs. The Challenge account shows a 1185 % increase since December 2007 when I started the blog and the account with just $500. This is equivalent to a 677% annual average return.
That even impresses me.
At the time I started this site very few believed it was possible to get such percentage increases, especially after publicly declaring that intent. Now that many others following this Challenge have had similar gains, it isn't so unreasonable in people's minds.
Nevertheless, if one wishes to follow along on some or all of the trades taken here, remember that pure risk capital be used. If your lifestyle and that of your family will not be hampered by the loss of the money risked, it usually qualifies as risk capital.
Last week we had another week of losses in FirstStrikePlus.
Week of Aug. 31, 2009---FirststrikePlus trade executions:
eur/usd: Long @ 1.4342, stopped at 1.4262 for 80 pip loss.
gbp/jpy: Long @ 152.30, stopped at 150.06 for 224 pip loss.
gbp/usd: Long @1.6355, stopped at 1.6206 for 149 pip loss.
usd/chf: Short @1.0553, stopped at 1.0626 for 73 pip loss.
usd/jpy: Long @ 93.29, stopped at 92.55 for 74 pip loss.
-----
OneNightStand trades executed Friday, Sept. 4, 2009:
-None-
Trading account equity: $ 2,816.41
Loss from previous week: $ 214.56.
Silver position equity: $ 3,610.00
(Current XAG price: $16.20– 1000 unit position average: $12.59)
TOTAL Equity: $ 6,426.41
There is a strong difference between investing and trading. Especially when you are willing to put up with substantial drawdowns despite constant trading..., while waiting for your “edge” to reassert itself.
This last week we saw a sharp move up in silver and gold. A significant part of the Challenge account could be considered by many an "investment" in silver. It really is a trade, just a very long term one - I will be happy to sell when volatility becomes extreme at higher levels. As long as inflation demons lurk in the shadows, the trade should prosper easily.
As most of you know, I've been bullish silver since the $8.40 low. Time and price (Gann indications) came in very strongly then and I have more personal certainty that silver low will never be seen again than the USA will remain capitalist for the next 4 years. (I do believe that even if we should have to suffer socialism, it will be as short-lived as Prohibition was. And it will end badly for the perpetrators.)
I've calculated that with the current equity and a modest 60% increase per year for the next 7 years will build the Challenge account into over $160K. Of course, increases like we experienced over the last year and a half can't be expected all the time. But if I do just a fraction as well as I've done already-- I could hit a million+ in those 7 years.
Some have emailed me commenting on how dismal the current returns have been trading First Strike Plus and OneNightStand.
Yes, I know.
That is definitely the way trading is, you keep taking trades that have a statistical edge and get hammered (experiencing losses) until you don't. If that is what you've been experiencing, congratulations! You've been trading the same markets I have.
The spectacular gains I've enjoyed in the last month (as already mentioned) were due primarily to my silver position. I expect that a significant amount of the Challenge account's gains for the next few years will be from silver enhancement. Silver is increasing the account size while currencies are just holding their own.
Eventually the currency markets will take off and we should profit as we have in the past. That's one of the reasons there is so much latent profit potential in proper trading of markets. The vast majority of market watchers/traders get sick and tired of getting hammered (experiencing more losses) and stop trading. The market, now clear of side currents – starts trending again. (By then, that majority has found a new “shouldn't lose” system and they repeat the process.)
For those of us in the USA, have a good Labor Day holiday.
Best of wishes to you all. I cautiously look forward to the FSP trades this week. The ranges have narrowed tremendously and the potential for large profits is here. Or just our usual containable losses.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Sorry about my long absences. But, trading is what I do for a living and when duty calls..., it usually takes the form of an early morning Eur/Usd or coffee trade.
This year has been one of my busiest and most personally profitable. Last year was terrific for me in my personal trading - especially the last half - so this year is a unsuspected bonus. All markets have ebbs and flows, and right now the majority of the world's money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for confirmation of something to make a commitment.
When volatility starts to increase due to that commitment, I have to get involved. You already know the drill.
Since the last update in April --- in the Challenge account I have made 108 FirstStrikePlus and ONS trades and added 600 ounces to the long XAG position. The previous position of 400 ounces had an average of $10.95.
The 3 silver additions were: 200 ounces @13.04, 200 ounces @ 13.70 and 200 ounces @14.31.
This makes an average position of 1000 ounces of XAG @12.59.
Due to this enhanced position and the beneficial price action of the last month in silver – we have hit new equity highs. The Challenge account shows a 1185 % increase since December 2007 when I started the blog and the account with just $500. This is equivalent to a 677% annual average return.
That even impresses me.
At the time I started this site very few believed it was possible to get such percentage increases, especially after publicly declaring that intent. Now that many others following this Challenge have had similar gains, it isn't so unreasonable in people's minds.
Nevertheless, if one wishes to follow along on some or all of the trades taken here, remember that pure risk capital be used. If your lifestyle and that of your family will not be hampered by the loss of the money risked, it usually qualifies as risk capital.
Last week we had another week of losses in FirstStrikePlus.
Week of Aug. 31, 2009---FirststrikePlus trade executions:
eur/usd: Long @ 1.4342, stopped at 1.4262 for 80 pip loss.
gbp/jpy: Long @ 152.30, stopped at 150.06 for 224 pip loss.
gbp/usd: Long @1.6355, stopped at 1.6206 for 149 pip loss.
usd/chf: Short @1.0553, stopped at 1.0626 for 73 pip loss.
usd/jpy: Long @ 93.29, stopped at 92.55 for 74 pip loss.
-----
OneNightStand trades executed Friday, Sept. 4, 2009:
-None-
Trading account equity: $ 2,816.41
Loss from previous week: $ 214.56.
Silver position equity: $ 3,610.00
(Current XAG price: $16.20– 1000 unit position average: $12.59)
TOTAL Equity: $ 6,426.41
There is a strong difference between investing and trading. Especially when you are willing to put up with substantial drawdowns despite constant trading..., while waiting for your “edge” to reassert itself.
This last week we saw a sharp move up in silver and gold. A significant part of the Challenge account could be considered by many an "investment" in silver. It really is a trade, just a very long term one - I will be happy to sell when volatility becomes extreme at higher levels. As long as inflation demons lurk in the shadows, the trade should prosper easily.
As most of you know, I've been bullish silver since the $8.40 low. Time and price (Gann indications) came in very strongly then and I have more personal certainty that silver low will never be seen again than the USA will remain capitalist for the next 4 years. (I do believe that even if we should have to suffer socialism, it will be as short-lived as Prohibition was. And it will end badly for the perpetrators.)
I've calculated that with the current equity and a modest 60% increase per year for the next 7 years will build the Challenge account into over $160K. Of course, increases like we experienced over the last year and a half can't be expected all the time. But if I do just a fraction as well as I've done already-- I could hit a million+ in those 7 years.
Some have emailed me commenting on how dismal the current returns have been trading First Strike Plus and OneNightStand.
Yes, I know.
That is definitely the way trading is, you keep taking trades that have a statistical edge and get hammered (experiencing losses) until you don't. If that is what you've been experiencing, congratulations! You've been trading the same markets I have.
The spectacular gains I've enjoyed in the last month (as already mentioned) were due primarily to my silver position. I expect that a significant amount of the Challenge account's gains for the next few years will be from silver enhancement. Silver is increasing the account size while currencies are just holding their own.
Eventually the currency markets will take off and we should profit as we have in the past. That's one of the reasons there is so much latent profit potential in proper trading of markets. The vast majority of market watchers/traders get sick and tired of getting hammered (experiencing more losses) and stop trading. The market, now clear of side currents – starts trending again. (By then, that majority has found a new “shouldn't lose” system and they repeat the process.)
For those of us in the USA, have a good Labor Day holiday.
Best of wishes to you all. I cautiously look forward to the FSP trades this week. The ranges have narrowed tremendously and the potential for large profits is here. Or just our usual containable losses.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Monday, August 31, 2009
Markets Finally Coming Back to Life!
Like many who read this blog, I save key
thoughts and phrases I find over the years. I write them down when I
find them in periodicals, old books, and sometimes even the internet
(usually a poorer place to find brilliance in print).
I
found the following missive yesterday going through 5 year-old trading
records. I had written it in longhand on the back of one of my older
silver charts. Moral: It pays to go through your old records.
You Can Do or Be Whatever You Desire.
You
have to get disgusted. You have to make a decision to change. You
have to visualize that change becoming a reality. And you must take the
action necessary to make it happen.
Time
is what puts everyone on a level playing field. It's a non-renewable
resource; when it's gone, it's gone, and you can't get it back. I have
24 hours in my day - no more and no less than you do in yours. It's
what you choose to do during those hours that will keep you broke or
make you a fortune.
I
know I saved the above because the thoughts definitely apply to
trading, and anything else of value too. I will address some critical
points from it in a few minutes.
The
last few months have been busy for me, and very likely you too. With
the new administration in Washington, many who were thrilled aren't as
thrilled, the others who weren't thrilled are even less thrilled and the
socialists among us are ecstatic. But this post isn't going to be
about my strong reservations about government (in the specific tense or
in general).
The
fact is that somewhere between 10 and 25 Trillion dollars has been
dumped into various places in the U.S. economy. Some of these places
are banks, who will hold on to the money until they get the permission
or certitude that they will be able to better their return than the
interest they receive putting the “gift money” back with the government
in T-Bills.
Other
receivers of “gift money” are bank funds or government shills who are
just waiting for conditions (like some healthy public confidence) that
will enable them to invest in businesses and various stock entities.
Either way, whatever these “gifted ” entities are waiting for eventually
will take place and the money will be leaked into the economy.
Then
the money will be returned as deposits and then be lent out again, only
multiplied many-fold to more people/businesses and the madness will
return that makes traders and speculators so valuable and happy for
awhile.
The
above is inevitable. Plus, the money that the general public thinks
was lost in the last year and a half will somehow find its way back to
the market and make a future economic boom that will be hard to imagine
for the average currently numb and depressed mutual fund holder.
Economics 101: (Print out this rule and stick it on your trading wall/desk/computer/monitor)
Money, once created, never disappears. It is only transferred to a position of higher utility.
Meaning,
the money that the majority of the baby-boomers had exposed and lost
from their 401Ks and mutual funds got liberated by those who had a more
correct view of financial circumstances and are currently applying to
the “next big thing”.
The
next BIG THING? Inflation on a scale previously never experienced,
because there has never been this much money created in the world just
waiting to be spent.
There are those who would beg to differ or fight about some of the points above
, but the statements prove true when the applicable country's currency
remains intact, a full business cycle completes, AND the country remains
CAPITALIST in nature.
So, if you have time, patience and the certain knowledge that the U.S. will remain capitalist, there is no problem.
Do you have all 3? I do not, just the first 2.
There is another element necessary. You need sufficient capital – if you wish to profit from a capitalist system.
If you don't have capital for the coming inflationary times right now, get it somehow, soon.
Back to the paragraph at the start of this post about being able to be or do whatever you desire.
Right
now it is popular in this country to blame the productive and the
risk-takers for the problems many suffer. Never is it mentioned that
every individual also has to think, plan and be responsible for their
own assets and future opportunities.
The
idea that the government should “take care of us” and be responsible
for redistributing wealth is epidemic – and greedily seconded by the
half of the country who prefers to receive – instead of struggle for
something better by themselves with their own ingenuity. The “taking
action” part is the crux. If so many are afraid to fail – with the
result that they never take risks, then those who ARE willing to take
reasonable risks have improved their odds to succeed tremendously.
What you choose to accomplish in your 24 hours a day will determine your success in the future. Especially in trading.
Life is trading. All based on choice – yours.
You can live wherever you want.
Why not live in a place where there is low crime and plenty of money
(and opportunities)? Instead of renting, you can buy a property that
has a better chance of appreciation because of its location.
By your financial decisions you can create the best credit rating possible.
You can work wherever you want.
You can educate yourself to whatever degree you wish and attain what
success you demand of yourself. Maybe it will take time and effort.
Make the effort if you wish the results.
You can choose the size of your family. You can marry well, or not at all.
You can be as healthy as your genetics allow by taking care of your diet and exercise.
If
you trade and invest, you need to do more – care more – than the rest
of the market participants to ensure you have an edge that you will act
on – every time. When others stumble, you can get ahead. I was
relentless for 18 hours a day for 5 years to make sure I had a viable
edge for trading. Then it got just a little easier for the next 25
years. I care more and execute every time when others might just think,
"Maybe the market won't go up this time. Maybe silver is in a bear
market just like Bob Prechter says."
Did
anyone say doing all these things is easy? No. But they are doable,
attainable by those who are willing to take relentless action.
Beware a government that promises easy answers to success-for-some by handing the bill to others who will never benefit.
Thomas Jefferson must be spinning in his grave.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Free Markets Benefit Man Best!
Most people are not aware of how difficult it is to trade systematically.
At first it may not seem like such a big deal, but after you do it over a long period of time, and you see the markets move counter to your method at times that you "just knew they would" ..., you start wanting to deviate more.
Market Wizard Bill Dunn -
Below are links to two great videos with a man who has had serious experience trading in the forex and futures markets over the decades. He has had volatile results (read: severe drawdowns), but he also has had an unending series of new equity highs to show for his consistency.
His message: follow your system exactly! After you have proven statistically that it will work.
He also has strong views on the benefit of "free markets" and the likelihood of success of those who would think that they can "do better" than the markets.
Watch Bill Dunn's 2 videos....
Part 1
Part2
See what you think.
At first it may not seem like such a big deal, but after you do it over a long period of time, and you see the markets move counter to your method at times that you "just knew they would" ..., you start wanting to deviate more.
Market Wizard Bill Dunn -
Below are links to two great videos with a man who has had serious experience trading in the forex and futures markets over the decades. He has had volatile results (read: severe drawdowns), but he also has had an unending series of new equity highs to show for his consistency.
His message: follow your system exactly! After you have proven statistically that it will work.
He also has strong views on the benefit of "free markets" and the likelihood of success of those who would think that they can "do better" than the markets.
Watch Bill Dunn's 2 videos....
Part 1
Part2
See what you think.
N O W ! Quit Your Day Job Even Faster!
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